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Growth rate

Year-one growth, faded toward the perpetual rate across the horizon. Left blank it comes from the company's own history, capped at the sector ceiling, and a genuine decline is kept rather than floored up.

Updated 2026-09-03

The growth rate is how fast cash flow is assumed to grow in year one, before fading toward the perpetual rate across the horizon. Left blank, Angie derives it from the company's own history rather than picking a number.

Where the figure comes from

It is the slope of a log-linear fit through the company's revenue history, using every year rather than comparing the first to the last. Revenue is preferred over cash-flow growth because free cash flow over a short window is dominated by one-off tax, working-capital and capex items, which makes stable businesses read as though they were shrinking.

  • The measured rate is capped at the sector ceiling, which runs from 6 percent for utilities to 20 percent for technology. A company classified as genuine hypergrowth may reach 45 percent.
  • A flat or growing company is floored at the terminal rate, so a near-zero trailing figure cannot create a backwards upward fade.
  • A genuine decline is kept negative. Flooring it up to the terminal rate would model a shrinking business as growing and manufacture a false discount, so those rows are marked low confidence instead.

One correction sits on top. A company that dipped mid-window and has since recovered shows a negative slope across the whole period even though its latest year grew strongly. That is a trough that recovered, not a shrinking business. When the full-window slope is negative but the most recent year grew, Angie discards the signal entirely and uses a modest sector default, flagged low confidence, rather than projecting a decline that is not happening.

Growing cash flow at the revenue rate assumes the margin holds. When revenue is rising and cash flow is not keeping pace, that assumption is being violated, and Angie flags the row as margin-eroding and drops its confidence rather than quietly overstating the value.

See also

  • Perpetual growth — The rate the company is assumed to grow at forever, once the explicit horizon ends. It feeds the Gordon-growth terminal value and cannot sensibly exceed the economy's long-run growth.
  • Horizon — How many years are projected explicitly before the terminal value takes over. Longer horizons matter only when growth genuinely exceeds the perpetual rate.
  • DCF base — The figure the projection actually starts from: a trend-fitted or median value across several years, so one distorted year cannot become a runaway base. It can sit far from the latest year.
  • Classification — The company's sector, which sets the growth ceiling and terminal method, combined with its lifecycle stage read from its own cash-flow history. Re-derived every run, and you can override it.

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Educational content, not investment advice. Angie explains how a valuation is built so you can judge it yourself. What you do with that is your call.

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